Greenhouse gases are not the only cause of global warming. It is Earth’s response to this process itself that is frightening.
“The shores are gone. The tsunami hit the top of the mountain. Humans declined, food was scarce and deadly heat waves continued to occur.”
It’s not a horror movie, it’s a scene that will one day take place not far away. Science calls it “Hothouse Earth”.
The term “greenhouse effect” is well known to many people. This phrase comes from greenhouses used to grow plants, exposure to the sun produces a heat trapping effect. But in English there is also the word “hothouse”, which can also be interpreted as a heated “greenhouse”.
Needless to say, at Earth scale, the greenhouse is a worse version of the greenhouse. And according to experts to conclude recently, the greenhouse phenomenon will come sooner than you think. At that point, the Earth will be so hot that it exceeds a recoverable threshold.
A very bad prospect
This is very bad news! Because even if we meet the 2015 Paris Agreement target on climate change of keeping temperatures 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels, it will not improve. .
“The amount of greenhouse gases emitted by humans is not the only factor that increases the heat of the Earth” – said Will Steffen, an expert from the Australian National University.
“Our research shows that if the temperature rises by 2 ° C, the Earth could trigger a different chain of reactions (called ‘feedback’) and raise the temperature even more, even if we stop producing greenhouse gases.”
The rise in temperature has many other effects, a dead end loop
The concept of “feedback” is divided into two categories: yin and yang. A coldroaction aims to balance the ecosystem, but a positive huynhroaction will make matters worse.
Take for example the process of melting ice. As the Earth warms, the bipolar permafrost melts. But the thawing process also releases a lot of carbon which is trapped in the ice, and thus makes the Earth warmer. It is a “positive coldroaction”, and it can spell disaster.
In Steffen’s study, experts also point out many other trends. For example, methane is emitted from the seabed, poorly textured soils or by bacterial growth in seawater.
According to Steffen, these are all negative signals. And as long as we reach the elevation of 2 ° C, we will never be able to kristir again, and fall into a dead end loop.
“It will be like a domino effect. When a coin falls, an endless series of disasters will occur.” – a city Johan Rockström, co-author of the study.
Does this mean that the 2015 Paris Agreement is not enough?
I can not say it! Steffen and Rockström point out that at present we cannot determine whether the 2 ° C threshold set in the agreement is exactly the point of irreversibility. However, research confirms that the milestone is not certain and that we need to act harder and harder.
“The history of Earth has never been like this, and research shows that it poses risks to the planet’s climate system. we no longer emit greenhouse gases ”- said Katherin Richardson, an expert from the University of Copenhagen (Denmark).
In other words, the threshold of 2 ° C is still theoretical. As for the reality, we need to know more, although time may be running out.
