Researchers hypothesize that most of the extraterrestrial civilizations that once dispersed throughout our galaxy may have perished on their own.
This is the result of a recently published study that uses modern astronomical and statistical models to map the occurrence and death of intelligent life in time and space. Galaxy.
This result is believed to be a more accurate 2020 update of a famous equation that the founder of the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Institute (SETI) Frank Drake wrote in 1961. The Drake equation, popularized by the physicist Carl Sagan, is based on a number of mysterious variables – such as the prevalence of planets in the universe, followed by an open question.
Where and when life is likely to happen in the Milky Way.
However, the new report from three Caltech physicists is much more realistic. It shows where and when life is likely to occur in the Milky Way, and identifies the most important factor affecting its popularity is the tendency of intelligent organisms to self-destruct.
“Since the days of Carl Sagan, there has been a lot of research. Especially from the Hubble Space Telescope and the Kepler Space Telescope, we have a lot of knowledge about the densities of gases and stars. Milky Way, rate of star formation and exoplanet formation … or rate of supernova explosion, “study co-author Jonathan H. Jiang, laboratory astrophysicist NASA’s Jet Propulsion test has declared.
The study’s authors examined a variety of factors that could influence the development of intelligent life, such as the prevalence of Sun-like stars containing Earth-like planets; The frequency of radiant and deadly supernovas; The probability and time required for intelligent life to develop if the conditions are right.
By modeling the evolution of the Milky Way over time with these factors, they found that the probability of life occurring based on known factors peaked at around 13,000 light years from the galactic center and 8 billion years ago. after the formation of the galaxy.
Earth is approximately 25,000 light years from the galactic center, and human civilization appeared on the planet’s surface approximately 13.5 billion years after the formation of the Milky Way, although simple life has emerged. . appears just after the planet is formed.
In other words, we could be a “frontier civilization” in terms of galactic geography and relative latecomers to the self-aware Milky Way population.
But assuming that life arose quite frequently and eventually became intelligent, there are likely still other civilizations out there, mostly centered around this 13,000 light-year strip, due to the prevalence of stars like the sun there. low.
Most of the other civilizations that still exist in the galaxy today are likely to be immature, due to the possibility that intelligent life may be able to self-destruct over long periods of time. Researchers have found that even when the galaxy reached the height of its civilization more than 5 billion years ago, most surrounding civilizations were in danger of perishing on their own.